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Flooding ‘just a freak event’
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| Terry Marsh |
The devastating floods that swept through Oxfordshire last July were a freak event unrelated to climate change, according to a new report.
Researchers at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology claim the River Thames and its tributaries are no more likely to flood today than 100 years ago.
But they did admit the impact of flooding has increased and warn against building more houses on the county's flood plains.
Author Terry Marsh, from Wallingford, said record levels of rainfall in Oxfordshire last summer did not fit with trends towards drier, hotter summers and wetter winters expected under climate change models.
He said: "We can find no trend that flooding along the River Thames is getting worse and we have records dating back to 1883.
"The 2007 floods do not form part of any long-term trend or part of any emerging pattern that conforms with climate change scenarios. We have an inherently capricious climate and on occasion you get extraordinary events."
But Oxford-based author Mark Lynas, an expert on global warming, said: "The scientists have missed the bigger picture.
"They have concluded it was a freak event, but climate change suggests we are more likely to experience freak events."
He added: "This was the heaviest rainfall in the shortest period of time on record and it seems to me that relates decidedly to climate change."
Mr Marsh did, however, warn that people's vulnerability to flooding had increased because of development on flood plains. Thousands of properties in Oxfordshire were flooded last July, including the home of Nick Gladwin, in Earl Street, Oxford.
He said over-development was the main cause of flooding in West Oxford.
He said: "We have been a bit scared into thinking we are going to suffer flooding every day of the week.
"It could happen again in a few years or in 50 years."
Alison Campbell, 40, whose Abingdon home was damaged by flooding, said: "I think it was just a freak. It was just down to the amount of rain we had that day."
The Environment Agency did not attribute last summer's floods to climate change but warned of more extreme weather events, such as flooding, in the future.
6:56pm Tuesday 11th March 2008
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CommentPosted by: Peter, Oxford on 7:28pm Tue 11 Mar 08
[quote]Flooding ‘just a freak event’[/quote]
No they weren't
This is what happens when you build on a flood plain and next to rivers that need a 'run off' area in heavy rain. It has happened from year dot and will continue to happen - there is nothing 'freakish' about it, it is called NATURE.
Flooding ‘just a freak event’
No they weren't
This is what happens when you build on a flood plain and next to rivers that need a 'run off' area in heavy rain. It has happened from year dot and will continue to happen - there is nothing 'freakish' about it, it is called NATURE.
Posted by: Max Beran, Didcot, Oxon on 3:24pm Wed 12 Mar 08
You have to distinguish between the flow in the river measured in cubic metres per second, gallons per day or whatever (which is what Terry Marsh's study focuses on) and the depth of water as it passes through a constricted area such as Oxford. The study reported on concludes that there has been no upward trend in the frequency or magnitude of high river flows and this is entirely in line with numerous studies globally - no eveidence of any upward trend in floods worldwide. Faulty land use and cultivation practices can certainly influence river flows catchment wide though I suspect they would not have made a lot of difference to such a large rainfall event as last Summer's. Their main impact would show on smaller and medium scaled flood events. Having said that, they will make a difference locally to the river levels such that the same amount of flow in the river passes at a higher level but looking at the very long term level records at, say Sandford Lock, stretching back into the 19th century shows that levels then were higher than nowadays.
On the issue of climate change and man's contribution to it, it should be realised that in terms of the effect on the planetary enrgy budget we are well past half the impact expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide levels so we should certainly have seen an effect by now if there was to be any. So keeping harping on the future and how that will differ from the past is also a story getting past its sell-by date. If the alarming picture promulgated by public agencies, ministers, insurance companies and greens were accurate, we should already be seeing a clear and unarguable message shining through the river flow data, but we don't.
You have to distinguish between the flow in the river measured in cubic metres per second, gallons per day or whatever (which is what Terry Marsh's study focuses on) and the depth of water as it passes through a constricted area such as Oxford. The study reported on concludes that there has been no upward trend in the frequency or magnitude of high river flows and this is entirely in line with numerous studies globally - no eveidence of any upward trend in floods worldwide. Faulty land use and cultivation practices can certainly influence river flows catchment wide though I suspect they would not have made a lot of difference to such a large rainfall event as last Summer's. Their main impact would show on smaller and medium scaled flood events. Having said that, they will make a difference locally to the river levels such that the same amount of flow in the river passes at a higher level but looking at the very long term level records at, say Sandford Lock, stretching back into the 19th century shows that levels then were higher than nowadays.
On the issue of climate change and man's contribution to it, it should be realised that in terms of the effect on the planetary enrgy budget we are well past half the impact expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide levels so we should certainly have seen an effect by now if there was to be any. So keeping harping on the future and how that will differ from the past is also a story getting past its sell-by date. If the alarming picture promulgated by public agencies, ministers, insurance companies and greens were accurate, we should already be seeing a clear and unarguable message shining through the river flow data, but we don't.
Posted by: Mr Ison, England on 5:10pm Wed 12 Mar 08
I said it one,i will say it again.
Flooding is linked to the weather,global warming is linked to political parties.
Only a Cnut would push their religion and demand a tax tribute.
I said it one,i will say it again.
Flooding is linked to the weather,global warming is linked to political parties.
Only a Cnut would push their religion and demand a tax tribute.
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